Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,828$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,610.1}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,610.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,056$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(71 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,116.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,116.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,215$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $330,890$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(4.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{976,425.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 76.2)}}\) (asimptote \(976,425.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $21,048$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(454 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,708.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(37,708.6\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $174,412$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $111,698$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,916.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 60.5)}}\) (asimptote \(153,916.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,244$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(82.3 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,634.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,634.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $63,606$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,857$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(866 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $630$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,435.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 81.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,435.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,885$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,579$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(59.1 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,098.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 75.1)}}\) (asimptote \(17,098.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $230$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(9.85 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{858.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.5)}}\) (asimptote \(858.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,774$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $19,131$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(610 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,675.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 76.5)}}\) (asimptote \(51,675.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $682$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(53.2 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{862.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(862.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,874$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,649$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(613 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,008.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 83.6)}}\) (asimptote \(31,008.1\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $433$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(44.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{515.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(515.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,154$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $753$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(219 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{726.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 23.5)}}\) (asimptote \(726.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(5.31 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(20.8\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $130$ on 2020-05-22
